Like most natural events, pandemics have occurred before and all such events will happen again. That is now conventional wisdom. We only have to look back to April 15th, 2009 to find the first case in the last pandemic, the H1N1 influenza virus. This US virus originated in California and in twelve months, according to the CDC, had spread around the world, infecting an estimated 60.8 million Americans and killing an estimated 12,469 of them.
The Bush administration in 2005 had created A National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza and a Pandemic Influenza Plan, establishing a public/private preparedness effort. These plans were periodically updated through June 2017. In May of 2018, the White House Pandemic Response team was effectively fired.
Later studies of the H1N1 outbreak demonstrated that conspiracy theories and misleading claims had a negative impact on the rates of infection and death. That is poised to happen again
What might we have learned when we look back on the first wave of Covid-19? It is too early to know with certainty, but many issues are already clear.
It has been attractive for many to believe that government is inherently bad. This is a political philosophy, but the practical reality is that a central government is the only means to create a consistent and co-ordinated response to a national issue, crisis or otherwise. Dissatisfaction should be directed to a process of improvement rather than dismemberment.
The necessary closing of schools has indirectly highlighted the fact that 30 million undernourished children are dependent on meals obtained at school. This country is ranked 34th in the world for child poverty.
The structure of the health-care system has left it poorly prepared for the sudden onslaught of a highly contagious disease, with the unfortunate result that large areas of the country are underserved and the first-line medical staff have been placed at unacceptable risk due to under-staffing and lack of basic supplies. Far too many people have no access to care.
The stock market is an imperfect basis for creating retirement savings. While providing great opportunities for successful speculation by those with available capital, the inherent instability can leave small to medium retirement investors ruined.
Part-time and some 15 million sub-contracted (gig) workers, along with many of the hourly-paid, have little or no benefits or protection in a workplace shutdown.
So, we are learning, or re-learning, some hard lessons. It is suggested that we are in a war. That might just be the most hopeful thing that anyone on a podium has said in a while.
What happens in a widespread war? People come together and unite in the common cause. They look out for each other and do whatever it takes, until the enemy is defeated. We mourn the casualties together and make necessary changes in their memory. Great leaders tend to emerge and, out of the pain and suffering, a new resolve and creativity will drive a re-building. Priorities will be revised and serious people will be welcomed and serious work will be done. There will be a new understanding that the poor need to be supported and that opportunity follows significant investment in people and infrastructure.
And it will become clear that there remains no place for corruption in our democracy.
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